For those looking for some type of clarity when it comes to the top of the Big Ten Legends division, you?ll be sorely disappointed.
Thanks to Iowa?s upset over No. 15 Michigan, those schools currently sit at 3-2 in conference play. ?Michigan State?s closer-than-expected win over Minnesota kept the Spartans at 4-1 and a half game ahead of Nebraska, pending the outcome of the Cornhuskers? home game with Northwestern this afternoon; should NU win, those two schools would be tied atop the division, although the ?Huskers hold the head-to-head edge.
In reality, the path to one of the two spots in the first-ever Big Ten title game could be very simple: if Nebraska, which has games against Penn State, Michigan and Iowa remaining, wins out, they will represent the Legends division in Indianapolis regardless of what any other team does the rest of the way. ?If not? ?Hello chaos.
Should Iowa, which has games against Nebraska, Purdue and Michigan State left, win their last three games, and Nebraska and MSU win out with the exception of their game against the Hawkeyes, those three teams would be tied at 6-2. ?That would be bad news for any school that doesn?t answer to the name ?Nebraska? as the three-way tiebreaker would favor the Cornhuskers. Here are the Big Ten rules that govern three-way ties atop a division, in order of use:
1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other
2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, and 6)
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the BCS poll. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship
6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative
7. The representative will be chosen by random draw.
Based on the scenario we laid out above, Nebraska ? again, pending their game with Northwestern today ? would finish the season with an overall record of 10-2 compared to 9-3 for both Iowa and Michigan State. ?Thus, the Hawkeyes would need to win out and have either Nebraska or Michigan State lose an additional game ? remember, Iowa plays both Nebraska and MSU in the last three games ? in order to get into a two-way tie, which would favor them in head-to-head matchups. ?If Iowa loses another game? ?They?re done in the divisional race, barring a complete collapse on the part of the ?Huskers and/or Spartans.
The Spartans path to a division title is relatively simple to explain compared to the Hawkeyes? scenario but much more difficult to accomplish on the field: win their last three games and hope the Cornhuskers lose at least two of their three remaining games. ?MSU cannot finish in a two-way tie with Nebraska as the ?Huskers, again, own the head-to-head.
For Michigan, the odds of winning the first-ever Legends title are very, very long, simply because the Wolverines have already lost to both Michigan State and Iowa. ?If the Wolverines were to win out against Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State to get to 6-2, their optimum route to a title would be for MSU to lose at least two games and Iowa to lose at least one, creating a two-way tie with Nebraska. ?A three-way tie involving Nebraska would likely spell doom for the Wolverines due to what would be projected as a superior overall record for the ?Huskers. ?A three-way tie that went to the No. 2 tiebreaker would also, in theory, hurt the Wolverines as both of their losses thus far have come from within the division. ?In other words, Michigan will need nearly every ball to bounce its way in order to have even the slimmest of shots.
And if Nebraska happens to lose to Northwestern this afternoon ? the Wildcats are leading 7-0 late in the first quarter at the time of this posting ? you can pretty much forget just about everything written above. ?And, while you?re busy forgetting, I?ll be jabbing sharp objects into my eyes and/or ears.
UPDATED 6:59 p.m. ET: Northwestern 28, Nebraska 18.
Thus, forget about every single word written above ? especially the parts where I screwed up. ?I?ll have an updated post on the muddled Legends division at some point in the not-too-distant future. ?The short version? ?If Michigan State or Iowa wins out, that team will represent the Legends division in the Big Ten title game. ?In other words, next weekend?s Spartans-Hawkeyes game could very well decide the division.
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