House Speaker John Boehner could be taking the biggest gamble of his 20-year congressional career.
Along with President Barack Obama, the Ohio Republican has emerged as the strongest proponent of the ?big? deal on increasing the U.S. debt limit ? a package that is likely to include more than $4 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years, including changes to popular entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security.
Continue ReadingSuch a ?grand bargain? would be a major victory for Boehner and House Republicans, who have sought to slash federal spending at every opportunity since coming to power six months ago.
But there?s a catch ? Boehner would have to agree to revenue boosts through tax-code reform, including closure of loopholes then coupled with lower corporate tax rates, all of which is designed to spur economic growth. The new revenue could reach up to $1 trillion over a ten-year period, funds that could be used for deficit reduction. Boehner and his top aides insist there will be ?no tax increases.?
In that, the low-key Boehner would be asking his House Republican Conference to do what its most loathe to do: enact a debt-ceiling boost in exchange for a future promise of reworking the nation?s tax infrastructure?and structural reforms to the three big entitlement programs, Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid. And to add to that, it would have to be a restructuring that rakes in enough revenues to satisfy Obama while staying away from tax hikes in order to keep conservatives on board.
Even Boehner?s closest friends and allies in the House admit the stakes are huge on the biggest stage of Boehner?s political life, signalling that the 60-year-old Ohio Republican has reached a pivotal moment of his speakership.
?He?s playing for historic stakes,? said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a one-time Boehner rival who now finds himself a top cheerleader of the speaker. ?What he?s trying to accomplish will literally change the fiscal trajectory of the country.?
?The road is filled with political landmines? for Boehner, added Rep. Steve LaTourette (R-Ohio), a Boehner ally. ?But the folks who are running around saying he shouldn?t negotiate with Obama, that isn?t the way the Founders set up the government. If you only have one side making demands and the other side caves in, that?s not negotiations, that?s a surrender. And I don?t think this president surrenders.?
Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas) said this will be ?the biggest issue that will face members of Congress in their re-election.?
In interviews, several GOP lawmakers said any ?grand bargain? must not include any tax increases - or even provisions that can be construed as tax increases - or rank-and-file Republicans will turn against it.
?There can?t be any hint of a tax increase,? said Rep. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.). ?The last thing we can do is raise taxes.?
Getting the support of his top lieutenant, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), has emerged as a major challenge for Boehner. Cantor told Obama during Thursday?s bipartisan-bicameral meeting that a large-scale deal can?t pass the House. He and Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) are both pushing for a ?middle? package that includes $2.4 trillion in spending cuts and no new tax revenues. Boehner?s Senate GOP counterpart, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky) is thus far non-committal to what he will support.
The four top Republicans met early Thursday before heading to the White House, and during that session, Boehner?s support for the ?big? package emerged, surprising Cantor and Kyl, GOP insiders said.
?There?s a political risk in anything you do,? said House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who is not part of the high-level debt talks with Obama. ?He?s got the president now bringing up entitlement reform. [Boehner] has pushed this to a new point than has been done before. If you look at history and what we?ve been able to change here, we?re moving in the right direction.?
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